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Alize ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 3.2

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Alize Swell Statistics, Winter: All Swell – Any Wind

The rose diagram illustrates the combination of swells directed at Alize over a normal northern hemisphere winter. It is based on 6931 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the coast so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Alize. In the case of Alize, the best grid node is 35 km away (22 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These were forecast only 4% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the E. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Alize and out to sea. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Alize, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical northern hemisphere winter, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Alize run for about 96% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.