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Alize ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 3.2

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Alize Swell Statistics, Autumn: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Alize that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal northern hemisphere autumn. It is based on 8476 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was ENE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the E. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 8% of the time, equivalent to 7 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal northern hemisphere autumn but 4% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 4%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Alize is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Alize about 8% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 85% of the time. This is means that we expect 85 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere autumn, of which 7 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.