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Aligator Rock ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 5.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 4.0

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Aligator Rock Swell Statistics, Summer: All Swell – Any Wind

The figure illustrates the combination of swells directed at Aligator Rock over a normal northern hemisphere summer and is based upon 7266 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coastline so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Aligator Rock. In the case of Aligator Rock, the best grid node is 42 km away (26 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These were forecast only 90% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was NNW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the E. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Aligator Rock and offshore. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Aligator Rock, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical northern hemisphere summer, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Aligator Rock run for about 10% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.