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Aligator Rock ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 5.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 4.0

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Aligator Rock Swell Statistics, Autumn: All Swell – Any Wind

The graph shows the combination of swells directed at Aligator Rock over a normal northern hemisphere autumn. It is based on 7252 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coast so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Aligator Rock, and at Aligator Rock the best grid node is 42 km away (26 miles).

The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell sizes and directions, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These were forecast only 41% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NNW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the E. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Aligator Rock and out to sea. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Aligator Rock, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical northern hemisphere autumn, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Aligator Rock run for about 59% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.