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Aligator Rock ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 5.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 4.0

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Surf Report Feed

Aligator Rock Swell Statistics, September: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Aligator Rock that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical September and is based upon 2400 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.

The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was NNW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the E. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 35% of the time, equivalent to 10 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal September but 12% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 12%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Aligator Rock is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Aligator Rock about 35% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 1.0% of the time. This is means that we expect 11 days with waves in a typical September, of which 10 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.