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Aligator Rock ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 5.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 4.0

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Surf Report Feed

Aligator Rock Swell Statistics, September: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Aligator Rock that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical September. It is based on 2880 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.

The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was NNW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the E. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 37% of the time, equivalent to 11 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal September but 12% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 12%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Aligator Rock is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Aligator Rock about 37% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 1.0% of the time. This is means that we expect 11 days with waves in a typical September, of which 11 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.