Ajo Swell Statistics, All Year: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Ajo that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical year. It is based on 28044 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.
The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was NW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 37% of the time, equivalent to 135 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 1.4% of the time (5 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Ajo is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Ajo about 37% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 56% of the time. This is means that we expect 339 days with waves in a typical year, of which 135 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.