Air Guling Swell Statistics, Autumn: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Air Guling that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical southern hemisphere autumn. It is based on 6580 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the ESE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 27% of the time, equivalent to 25 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal southern hemisphere autumn but 5% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 5%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Air Guling is slightly protected from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Air Guling about 27% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 55% of the time. This is means that we expect 75 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere autumn, of which 25 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.