Afife Swell Statistics, February: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Afife that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical February. It is based on 2102 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was WNW (which was the same as the most common wind direction). The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 34% of the time, equivalent to 10 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only arise 3% of the time in a typical February, equivalent to just one day but 12% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 12%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Afife is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Afife about 34% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 65% of the time. This is means that we expect 28 days with waves in a typical February, of which 10 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.