Acid Drops Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Acid Drops that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal October. It is based on 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red shows the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was S, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the E. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 20% of the time, equivalent to 6 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal October but 14% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 14%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Acid Drops is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Acid Drops about 20% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 1.0% of the time. This is means that we expect 7 days with waves in a typical October, of which 6 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.