El Canal (Rio de Bayamon) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s be honest about this one. The 16-day window for El Canal (Rio de Bayamon) is a tough read. The whole period is littered with poor surf conditions and the break itself is a river mouth that rarely breaks. So the outlook is this: don’t hold your breath. There’s a very long gap until anything even gets a second look, and even then, it’s a stretch.

Let’s start with the kicker. The first proper recommendation isn’t until the morning of Monday, 31st August. That’s a gap from now all the way through the weekend with nothing. On Monday morning, we get a pulse of swell from the ENE at 6ft, with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy hits 499 (moderate wave energy), which is the strongest number in the whole run. The wind is cross-off from the ESE at 9 mph, and the wave comment calls it “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” It’s a glimmer, but at a break that’s sheltered and rarely breaks, and with ENE swell coming in against an optimum of N, the shape won’t be right. This is not a standout. It’s just the least bad morning on offer.

From there, it falls away fast. The Monday afternoon drops off, and from Tuesday, 1st September, right through to Saturday, 6th September, you’re looking at tiny swell – mostly under 3ft, with periods as short as 6 seconds. Combined energy drops to single or double digits. It’s effectively flat for the better part of a week.

There is a little spike on the 6th of September (Sunday) afternoon, where a long-period 13-second swell from the east shows up at 3ft, with combined energy of 321 (moderate). The wind is cross-off at 16 mph. But the wave comment still says “poor surf conditions.” The swell is coming from E, not the preferred N, and at a river mouth that is rarely breaking, this is likely junky and hard to line up.

The rest of the run into the second week – 7th to 11th September – is more of the same: small, inconsistent swell in the 2ft to 4ft range, with short to moderate periods, and winds that are either cross or cross-off. The water temperature is 85°F, which is about average for the time of year, not unusual. The break itself is sheltered, so it needs a very specific swell and tide to work, and this forecast doesn’t provide either with any conviction.

In short, there is no standout here. If you are desperate, Monday the 31st morning and maybe Sunday 6th afternoon are the only windows worth a peek, but keep the expectations low. This is a classic case where a blank run is pretty normal for the area. It won’t stay poor forever, but right now it’s not delivering.

Rusty.

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