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15th Street ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 2.0

Overall: 2.8

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

15th Street Swell Statistics, Autumn: All Swell – Any Wind

The rose diagram describes the variation of swells directed at 15th Street over a normal northern hemisphere autumn. It is based on 7252 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the shore so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about 15th Street. In the case of 15th Street, the best grid node is 21 km away (13 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These occurred only 7% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the WNW. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from 15th Street and offshore. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are surfable at 15th Street, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical northern hemisphere autumn, swells large enough to cause good for surfing waves at 15th Street run for about 93% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.