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15th Street ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 2.0

Overall: 2.8

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

15th Street Swell Statistics, January: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at 15th Street that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal January. It is based on 2372 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the N. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 60% of the time, equivalent to 19 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal January but 9% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 9%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that 15th Street is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at 15th Street about 60% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 35% of the time. This is means that we expect 29 days with waves in a typical January, of which 19 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.