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15th Street ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 2.0

Overall: 2.8

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Surf Report Feed

15th Street Swell Statistics, Autumn: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at 15th Street that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere autumn and is based upon 7252 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 54% of the time, equivalent to 49 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal northern hemisphere autumn but 5% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 5%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that 15th Street is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at 15th Street about 54% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 39% of the time. This is means that we expect 85 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere autumn, of which 49 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.