Wailua/Horners Swell Statistics, March: All Swell – Any Wind
This image shows the variation of swells directed at Wailua/Horners over a normal March and is based upon 1724 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the shore so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Wailua/Horners. In the case of Wailua/Horners, the best grid node is 35 km away (22 miles).
The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and directions, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These were forecast only 44% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.
The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NNW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the ENE. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Wailua/Horners and out to sea. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Wailua/Horners, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical March, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Wailua/Horners run for about 56% of the time.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.