Waddell Creek Swell Statistics, Autumn: All Swell – Any Wind
The rose diagram describes the variation of swells directed at Waddell Creek through a typical northern hemisphere autumn. It is based on 5845 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the coastline so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Waddell Creek, and at Waddell Creek the best grid node is 22 km away (14 miles).
The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell sizes and directions, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These were forecast only 68% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the NW. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Waddell Creek and away from the coast. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are surfable at Waddell Creek, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average northern hemisphere autumn, swells large enough to cause good for surfing waves at Waddell Creek run for about 32% of the time.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.