Waddell Creek Swell Statistics, Autumn: All Swell – Any Wind
This chart illustrates the range of swells directed at Waddell Creek through a typical northern hemisphere autumn and is based upon 6516 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the coastline so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Waddell Creek, and at Waddell Creek the best grid node is 22 km away (14 miles).
The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and directions, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These happened only 67% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.
The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NW. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Waddell Creek and offshore. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Waddell Creek, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average northern hemisphere autumn, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Waddell Creek run for about 33% of the time.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.