Vaucottes Swell Statistics, January: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Vaucottes that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical January and is based upon 1966 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 12% of the time, equivalent to 4 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal January. Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Vaucottes is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Vaucottes about 12% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 57% of the time. This is means that we expect 21 days with waves in a typical January, of which 4 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.