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Utua Mamao (Atafu) ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 5.0

Overall: 3.5

See all 18 ratings

Based on 1 vote. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Utua Mamao (Atafu) Swell Statistics, Summer: All Swell – Any Wind

The rose diagram shows the combination of swells directed at Utua Mamao (Atafu) over a normal southern hemisphere summer, based on 8485 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the coastline so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Utua Mamao (Atafu). In this particular case the best grid node is 8 km away (5 miles).

The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. These were forecast only 98% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SSE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NNE. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Utua Mamao (Atafu) and offshore. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Utua Mamao (Atafu), you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical southern hemisphere summer, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Utua Mamao (Atafu) run for about 2.0% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.