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Urca da Conceicao ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.2

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Urca da Conceicao Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Urca da Conceicao that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical southern hemisphere winter and is based upon 8738 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.

The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the SE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 0.1% of the time, equivalent to 0 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal southern hemisphere winter. Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Urca da Conceicao is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Urca da Conceicao about 0.1% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 26% of the time. This is means that we expect 24 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere winter, of which 0 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.