This image shows only the swells directed at Tolaga Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal June and is based upon 1594 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was E, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 16% of the time, equivalent to 5 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal June but 6% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 6%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Tolaga Bay is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Tolaga Bay about 16% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 19% of the time. This is means that we expect 10 days with waves in a typical June, of which 5 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.