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Tokomaru Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 4.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.8

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Surf Report Feed

Tokomaru Bay Swell Statistics, January: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Tokomaru Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical January. It is based on 2620 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was ENE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 18% of the time, equivalent to 6 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal January but 5% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 5%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Tokomaru Bay is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Tokomaru Bay about 18% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 46% of the time. This is means that we expect 20 days with waves in a typical January, of which 6 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.