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Tokatu Peninsula ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 3.0

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Tokatu Peninsula Swell Statistics, March: All Swell – Any Wind

This image shows the variation of swells directed at Tokatu Peninsula through an average March and is based upon 2716 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coastline so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Tokatu Peninsula. In the case of Tokatu Peninsula, the best grid node is 20 km away (12 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These occurred 62% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was ENE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SE. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Tokatu Peninsula and away from the coast. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Tokatu Peninsula, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical March, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Tokatu Peninsula run for about 15% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.