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Tokata Swell Statistics, February: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Tokata that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical February. It is based on 2440 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.

The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was ENE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the E. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 11% of the time, equivalent to 3 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal February. Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Tokata is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Tokata about 11% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 45% of the time. This is means that we expect 16 days with waves in a typical February, of which 3 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.