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Surf Break Rating

Rate Tokata


Surf Report Feed

Tokata Swell Statistics, February: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Tokata that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical February. It is based on 2664 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.

The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was ENE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the ENE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 11% of the time, equivalent to 3 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal February. Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Tokata is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Tokata about 11% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 47% of the time. This is means that we expect 16 days with waves in a typical February, of which 3 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.