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Toes Over ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 3.2

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Surf Report Feed

Toes Over Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Toes Over that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October. It is based on 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.

The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 55% of the time, equivalent to 17 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal October. Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Toes Over is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Toes Over about 55% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 41% of the time. This is means that we expect 30 days with waves in a typical October, of which 17 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.