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Toes Over ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 3.2

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Surf Report Feed

Toes Over Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Toes Over that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October. It is based on 2976 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 55% of the time, equivalent to 17 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal October. Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Toes Over is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Toes Over about 55% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 42% of the time. This is means that we expect 30 days with waves in a typical October, of which 17 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.

FEATURE UPDATE: we now show red swell icons for 'open sea' swells that are travelling in an unfavourable direction for the surf break. In places, these swells may still wrap around coastlines and produce smaller waves at some breaks. They are also significant for windsurfers and other water users that tend to venture further off-shore.