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Shipstern Bluff ratings
Quality on a good day: 5.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 4.7
Wind and Kite Surfing: 3.0
Crowds: 4.7

Overall: 3.9

See all 18 ratings

Based on 3 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Shipstern Bluff Swell Statistics, September: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Shipstern Bluff that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal September. It is based on 2880 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.

The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 33% of the time, equivalent to 10 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal September but 16% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 16%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Shipstern Bluff is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Shipstern Bluff about 33% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 50% of the time. This is means that we expect 25 days with waves in a typical September, of which 10 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.