Rocky Point Swell Statistics, Winter: All Swell – Any Wind
The graph illustrates the range of swells directed at Rocky Point through a typical southern hemisphere winter. It is based on 7216 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the shore so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Rocky Point, and at Rocky Point the best grid node is 9 km away (6 miles).
The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and directions, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These were forecast only 100% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was E (which was the same as the most common wind direction). Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Rocky Point and away from the coast. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Rocky Point, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average southern hemisphere winter, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Rocky Point run for about 0% of the time.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.