Padang Padang Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Padang Padang that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical southern hemisphere winter. It is based on 5802 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the ESE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 98% of the time, equivalent to 89 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 1.8% of the time (2 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Padang Padang is slightly protected from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Padang Padang about 98% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 0% of the time. This is means that we expect 89 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere winter, of which 89 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.