Padang Padang Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Padang Padang that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal southern hemisphere winter. It is based on 7266 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.
The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the ESE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 98% of the time, equivalent to 89 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only arise 1.5% of the time in a typical southern hemisphere winter, equivalent to just one day but 66% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 66%, equivalent to (60 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Padang Padang is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Padang Padang about 98% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 0% of the time. This is means that we expect 89 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere winter, of which 89 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.