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Keta Reef Oshima Swell Statistics, Spring: All Swell – Any Wind

The figure describes the combination of swells directed at Keta Reef Oshima over a normal northern hemisphere spring. It is based on 8682 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the shore so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Keta Reef Oshima. In the case of Keta Reef Oshima, the best grid node is 42 km away (26 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These were forecast only 68% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.

The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SSE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the WSW. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Keta Reef Oshima and offshore. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Keta Reef Oshima, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical northern hemisphere spring, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Keta Reef Oshima run for about 4% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.