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Nugget Point ratings
Quality on a good day: 4.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.3

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Surf Report Feed

Nugget Point Swell Statistics, March: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Nugget Point that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical March and is based upon 2716 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.

The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was S, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the NW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 13% of the time, equivalent to 4 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal March but 12% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 12%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Nugget Point is quite sheltered from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Nugget Point about 13% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 5% of the time. This is means that we expect 6 days with waves in a typical March, of which 4 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.