This image shows only the swells directed at Norderney that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal October. It is based on 1736 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was NW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 10% of the time, equivalent to 3 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October. Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Norderney is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Norderney about 10% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 33% of the time. This is means that we expect 13 days with waves in a typical October, of which 3 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.