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Mystery Point ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 2.0
Difficulty Level: 3.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 3.0

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Mystery Point Swell Statistics, All Year: All Swell – Any Wind

This picture shows the combination of swells directed at Mystery Point through an average year, based on 28044 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the coast so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Mystery Point, and at Mystery Point the best grid node is 26 km away (16 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These occurred only 0.4% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the N. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Mystery Point and offshore. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Mystery Point, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical year, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Mystery Point run for about 80% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.