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Mystery Point ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 2.0
Difficulty Level: 3.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 3.0

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Mystery Point Swell Statistics, All Year: All Swell – Any Wind

This chart shows the combination of swells directed at Mystery Point through a typical year, based on 26884 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the shore so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Mystery Point. In the case of Mystery Point, the best grid node is 26 km away (16 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and directions, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These occurred only 0.4% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the N. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Mystery Point and out to sea. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Mystery Point, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average year, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Mystery Point run for about 80% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.