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Last Chance ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 3.3

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Last Chance Swell Statistics, February: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Last Chance that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical February. It is based on 2440 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.

The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was ENE (which was the same as the prevailing wind direction). The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 10% of the time, equivalent to 3 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal February. Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Last Chance is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Last Chance about 10% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 27% of the time. This is means that we expect 10 days with waves in a typical February, of which 3 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.