La Jaimacana (The Pipes) Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at La Jaimacana (The Pipes) that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere winter. It is based on 6365 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.
The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the ENE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 86% of the time, equivalent to 78 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal northern hemisphere winter but 5% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 5%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that La Jaimacana (The Pipes) is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at La Jaimacana (The Pipes) about 86% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 10% of the time. This is means that we expect 87 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere winter, of which 78 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.