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La Concha ratings
Quality on a good day: 1.0
Consistency of Surf: 2.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 2.0

Overall: 2.2

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

La Concha Swell Statistics, January: All Swell – Any Wind

This image shows the combination of swells directed at La Concha over a normal January and is based upon 2620 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the coast so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about La Concha. In the case of La Concha, the best grid node is 21 km away (13 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These occurred only 5% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.

The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was NW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SW. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from La Concha and away from the coast. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at La Concha, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical January, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at La Concha run for about 95% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.