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Josiahs Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 4.5
Consistency of Surf: 5.0
Difficulty Level: 2.5
Wind and Kite Surfing: 2.0
Crowds: 3.5

Overall: 3.6

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Josiahs Bay Swell Statistics, Winter: All Swell – Any Wind

The rose diagram illustrates the variation of swells directed at Josiahs Bay over a normal northern hemisphere winter and is based upon 7765 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coastline so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Josiahs Bay, and at Josiahs Bay the best grid node is 11 km away (7 miles).

The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell sizes and directions, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These occurred only 49% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was NNE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the E. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Josiahs Bay and offshore. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Josiahs Bay, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical northern hemisphere winter, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Josiahs Bay run for about 28% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.