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Josiahs Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 4.5
Consistency of Surf: 5.0
Difficulty Level: 2.5
Wind and Kite Surfing: 2.0
Crowds: 3.5

Overall: 3.6

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Josiahs Bay Swell Statistics, Spring: All Swell – Any Wind

The rose diagram illustrates the variation of swells directed at Josiahs Bay through an average northern hemisphere spring. It is based on 8682 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coast so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Josiahs Bay. In this particular case the best grid node is 11 km away (7 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. These happened only 49% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was NNE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the E. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Josiahs Bay and offshore. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Josiahs Bay, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical northern hemisphere spring, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Josiahs Bay run for about 14% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.