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Josiahs Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 4.5
Consistency of Surf: 5.0
Difficulty Level: 2.5
Wind and Kite Surfing: 2.0
Crowds: 3.5

Overall: 3.6

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Josiahs Bay Swell Statistics, November: All Swell – Any Wind

The rose diagram describes the variation of swells directed at Josiahs Bay over a normal November and is based upon 2809 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the coastline so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Josiahs Bay. In this particular case the best grid node is 11 km away (7 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. These happened only 33% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.

The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was NNE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the E. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Josiahs Bay and away from the coast. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Josiahs Bay, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical November, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Josiahs Bay run for about 25% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.