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Jakes ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.5
Consistency of Surf: 4.5
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Wind and Kite Surfing: 1.0
Crowds: 2.5

Overall: 3.5

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Jakes Swell Statistics, May: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Jakes that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical May. It is based on 2696 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SSE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 70% of the time, equivalent to 22 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal May but 28% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 28%, equivalent to (9 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Jakes is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Jakes about 70% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 30% of the time. This is means that we expect 31 days with waves in a typical May, of which 22 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.