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Jakes ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.5
Consistency of Surf: 4.5
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Wind and Kite Surfing: 1.0
Crowds: 2.5

Overall: 3.5

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Jakes Swell Statistics, Autumn: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Jakes that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal southern hemisphere autumn. It is based on 8052 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the SSE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 74% of the time, equivalent to 67 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only arise 0.9% of the time in a typical southern hemisphere autumn, equivalent to just one day but 25% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 25%, equivalent to (23 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Jakes is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Jakes about 74% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 26% of the time. This is means that we expect 91 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere autumn, of which 67 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.