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Jackals Swell Statistics, November: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Jackals that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical November and is based upon 2387 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.

The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WSW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 57% of the time, equivalent to 17 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal November but 17% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 17%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Jackals is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Jackals about 57% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 43% of the time. This is means that we expect 30 days with waves in a typical November, of which 17 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.