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J-Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 4.2
Consistency of Surf: 3.7
Difficulty Level: 2.7
Wind and Kite Surfing: 1.0
Crowds: 2.7

Overall: 3.5

See all 18 ratings

Based on 6 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

J-Bay Swell Statistics, Spring: All Swell – Any Wind

The rose diagram describes the combination of swells directed at J-Bay over a normal southern hemisphere spring, based on 8724 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the coastline so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about J-Bay. In the case of J-Bay, the best grid node is 50 km away (31 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These occurred only 15% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red shows highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the SSE. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from J-Bay and offshore. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at J-Bay, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical southern hemisphere spring, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at J-Bay run for about 85% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.