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Horseshoe Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 4.0
Consistency of Surf: 2.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.6

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Horseshoe Bay Swell Statistics, March: All Swell – Any Wind

This picture shows the variation of swells directed at Horseshoe Bay through a typical March, based on 2716 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the coast so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Horseshoe Bay, and at Horseshoe Bay the best grid node is 20 km away (12 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and directions, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. These were forecast only 42% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was ENE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the ESE. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Horseshoe Bay and away from the coast. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Horseshoe Bay, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average March, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Horseshoe Bay run for about 58% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.