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Goat Rock ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 2.5
Difficulty Level: 3.0
Wind and Kite Surfing: 1.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 2.8

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Goat Rock Swell Statistics, Autumn: All Swell – Any Wind

The figure shows the variation of swells directed at Goat Rock through an average northern hemisphere autumn and is based upon 8724 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the shore so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Goat Rock, and at Goat Rock the best grid node is 33 km away (21 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These were forecast only 68% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NW. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Goat Rock and away from the coast. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Goat Rock, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical northern hemisphere autumn, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Goat Rock run for about 32% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.