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Goat Island/Mokuauia ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.8
Consistency of Surf: 3.8
Difficulty Level: 3.2
Wind and Kite Surfing: 4.5
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.3

See all 18 ratings

Based on 4 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Goat Island/Mokuauia Swell Statistics, July: All Swell – Any Wind

The figure shows the combination of swells directed at Goat Island/Mokuauia through an average July. It is based on 2976 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the coastline so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Goat Island/Mokuauia. In this particular case the best grid node is 38 km away (24 miles).

The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These happened only 7% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was ENE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the E. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Goat Island/Mokuauia and away from the coast. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Goat Island/Mokuauia, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical July, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Goat Island/Mokuauia run for about 93% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.