uk es it fr pt nl
Goat Island/Mokuauia ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.8
Consistency of Surf: 3.8
Difficulty Level: 3.2
Wind and Kite Surfing: 4.5
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.3

See all 18 ratings

Based on 4 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Goat Island/Mokuauia Swell Statistics, Autumn: All Swell – Any Wind

The rose diagram describes the combination of swells directed at Goat Island/Mokuauia through a typical northern hemisphere autumn and is based upon 8724 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the shore so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Goat Island/Mokuauia, and at Goat Island/Mokuauia the best grid node is 38 km away (24 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and directions, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These were forecast only 50% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red shows the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was NE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the E. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Goat Island/Mokuauia and out to sea. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Goat Island/Mokuauia, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average northern hemisphere autumn, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Goat Island/Mokuauia run for about 50% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.