This image shows only the swells directed at Gazos Creek that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical July. It is based on 1736 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red represents biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WNW (which was the same as the prevailing wind direction). The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 13% of the time, equivalent to 4 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal July but 7% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 7%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Gazos Creek is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Gazos Creek about 13% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 61% of the time. This is means that we expect 23 days with waves in a typical July, of which 4 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.