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Fergusons Beach ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.2

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Fergusons Beach Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Fergusons Beach that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal southern hemisphere winter. It is based on 8738 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was W, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the WSW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 30% of the time, equivalent to 27 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only occur 0.7% of the time in a typical southern hemisphere winter, equivalent to just one day but 10% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 10%, equivalent to (9 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Fergusons Beach is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Fergusons Beach about 30% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 64% of the time. This is means that we expect 86 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere winter, of which 27 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.