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Express Point ratings
Quality on a good day: 4.5
Consistency of Surf: 3.8
Difficulty Level: 4.2
Wind and Kite Surfing: 1.3
Crowds: 3.2

Overall: 3.6

See all 18 ratings

Based on 4 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Express Point Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Express Point that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal southern hemisphere winter and is based upon 7266 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 30% of the time, equivalent to 27 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only arise 1.1% of the time in a typical southern hemisphere winter, equivalent to just one day but 11% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 11%, equivalent to (10 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Express Point is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Express Point about 30% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 20% of the time. This is means that we expect 46 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere winter, of which 27 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.