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El Estero ratings
Quality on a good day: 4.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 3.5
Wind and Kite Surfing: 1.0
Crowds: 2.5

Overall: 3.8

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote

Surf Report Feed

El Estero Swell Statistics, January: All Swell – Any Wind

This chart illustrates the range of swells directed at El Estero over a normal January, based on 2620 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the shore so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about El Estero. In this particular case the best grid node is 26 km away (16 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These happened only 89% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was W, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NE. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from El Estero and out to sea. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are surfable at El Estero, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical January, swells large enough to cause good for surfing waves at El Estero run for about 11% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.