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El Circo ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 3.0
Crowds: 2.0

Overall: 2.8

See all 18 ratings

Based on 4 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

El Circo Swell Statistics, Winter: All Swell – Any Wind

The rose diagram illustrates the range of swells directed at El Circo through an average northern hemisphere winter and is based upon 8485 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the shore so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about El Circo. In the case of El Circo, the best grid node is 41 km away (25 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These were forecast only 5% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.

The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was NNW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NE. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from El Circo and out to sea. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at El Circo, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical northern hemisphere winter, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at El Circo run for about 95% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.