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Dry Lagoon ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 2.5
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 4.5
Accommodation: 2.0

Overall: 3.2

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Dry Lagoon Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Dry Lagoon that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October. It is based on 2976 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.

The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was W, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 27% of the time, equivalent to 8 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only occur 3% of the time in a typical October, equivalent to just one day but 13% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 13%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds we estimate that clean surf can be found at Dry Lagoon about 27% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 69% of the time. This is means that we expect 30 days with waves in a typical October, of which 8 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.